FALL – OUT FROM THE WRIT ISSUEIt is now possible to evaluate the repercussions from the announcement by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of its intentions to seek to issue a Writ against the President of Sudan, Omar Hassan Al Bashir and others. After the news was released Khartoum immediate reaction was the issue of threats of dire consequences for Darfur, the Comprehensive Peace Ageement (CPA) etc. The landing rights for UN flights into Khartoum were suspended with humanitarian consequences. This was followed by Khartoum’s lobbying of their Arab constituency, which saw the Arab League offer alternative solutions, such as the handing over to the ICC of the two indicted Sudanese. Khartoum sent teams as emissaries, to the Arab Heads of state, seeking their support. The African Union belatedly issued a statement questioning the wisdom and effectiveness of the issue of a Writ on the Sudan Head of State.Meanwhile in Sudan a vast public rally of support took place in Khartoum presided over by Bashir. Political parties declared their allegiance to the Sudan state, coming out to defend its President, the territorial integrity and national sovereignty. This position was taken by the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement ( SPLM), subject to conditions. It is worth explaining why the SPLM took the position it did. The SPLM would want Khartoum to adhere to its undertakings, where they have prevaricated in the past – peacekeepers/mixed force deployment and the pursuit of peace in Darfur, implementation of the CPA – demarcation of boundaries, wealth sharing etc. Bashir now states he will do these things. He was recently in Darfuf promising development, street lighting etc. He has pardoned those Darfuri involved in the recent Justice and Equality (JEM) attach on Omdurman.It is said that Bashir and others of the National Congress Party (NCP) are to be indicted by the ICC. These would include his top associates, including the Minister of Justice A list of some 50 people is said to exist. The ICC Writ issue will hamper Bashir’s travel in future. It will eliminate him as a Presidential candidate in the 2009 national elections in Sudan. It is widely believed that the SPLM will win these elections. Whether NCP will field a Presidential candidate and who that candidate might be – remains unclear. The NCP is in a dilemma as to its political future. The SPLM is now in a position to choose with whom it will form an alliance, if any, for the 2009 elections.As a result of the Writ issue a Crisis Committee has been formed to handle the fall-out. This is chaired by the President of the SPLM and Vice-President of Southern Sudan, HE Salva Kiir Mayardit. He is to ensure that the Committee undertakes diplomatic and legal actions to counteract the ICC Writ as it effects the sovereignty of Sudan,where Kiir has a share According to the presidential decree, the panel has to coordinate its efforts with the African Union, the Arab League and the Movement of Non-Aligned countries. In addition, the Committee has to study the legal aspects of the charges leveled by the ICC Prosecutor against the Sudanese president and to find a compromise with the International Community to avoid negative effects on the signed peace accords.At this point in time the balance of power in Sudan makes the position of the SPLM decisive. One can say that Salva Kiir is currently holding Sudan together. .by BF Bankie25/7/08
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